The Question

Busy city intersection at dusk with autonomous vehicles flowing through without traffic lights

The world's first electric traffic light was switched on at the corner of Euclid Avenue and East 105th Street in Cleveland, Ohio, in 1914. It was a brilliant solution to a specific problem: humans in fast machines cannot be trusted to negotiate an intersection by eye contact. So we built a system of coloured lamps that stops half the traffic so the other half can move — and then we accepted, for over a century, that sitting motionless at an empty crossroads is simply what driving is.

Add it up and the absurdity shows. The average urban driver loses days every year waiting at red lights, engines burning fuel to go nowhere, while the cross street sits vacant. The traffic light is not traffic management. It is a confession that vehicles cannot talk to each other. But now they can — and the question is when the first city admits that the coloured lamps, like the gas streetlight and the telephone box, have finished their work.

What the Evidence Shows

The theoretical case was made at MIT's Senseable City Lab, whose slot-based intersection research modelled crossroads where vehicles talk to each other — a technology called V2X, short for vehicle-to-everything — and book a "slot" to pass through, like aircraft landing at an airport. No lights, no stopping, just continuous interleaved flow. The models showed such intersections could handle roughly double the traffic of a signalised junction while nearly eliminating the stop-start waves that cause congestion and waste fuel.

The practical case is already on the street. Pittsburgh's Surtrac system — adaptive signals that watch traffic in real time and re-time themselves — cut travel times by about 25% and idling by over 40% in its deployment corridors. Google's Green Light project uses driving data to re-tune signals in cities from Seattle to Jakarta, reporting up to 30% fewer stops at optimised junctions. These systems still use lights, but they are the transitional species: signals that think are the step before signals that vanish.

"The traffic light was designed for a world where vehicles were blind and deaf. Keeping it in a world of networked cars is like keeping a lighthouse for ships with GPS — charming, reassuring, and fundamentally obsolete."

— Urban Mobility Quarterly — "After the Signal," 2025

There is even a low-tech preview. Dutch and Scandinavian towns pioneering "shared space" urbanism removed signals, signs, and kerbs from town centres — forcing everyone to negotiate by attention rather than obedience — and recorded fewer accidents, not more. Drachten in the Netherlands became the famous case: junctions that handled 20,000-plus vehicles a day flowed better and crashed less without lights. Human intersections can already work unsignalised at moderate speeds. Machine intersections can work unsignalised at any speed.

"Your grandchildren will ask why the city made everyone stop at a lamp — and you will not have a good answer."

Why This Is Happening

The connected-car fleet is quietly reaching critical mass. V2X hardware is being built into new vehicles as a safety feature, letting cars broadcast position, speed, and intention to each other and to city infrastructure. Robotaxi fleets in San Francisco, Phoenix, and Wuhan already navigate complex junctions autonomously thousands of times a day. Once a district's traffic is mostly networked, the light becomes redundant hardware.

Cities are desperate for capacity they cannot build. No mayor can widen downtown streets, but MIT's numbers suggest signal-free coordination could double intersection throughput using the asphalt that already exists. That is the political jackpot: congestion relief with no construction, funded by removing infrastructure rather than adding it.

The climate math is embarrassing. Idling at signals burns billions of litres of fuel a year globally and every stop-start cycle spikes emissions. Adaptive-signal pilots have already documented double-digit emission cuts from simply reducing stops. For cities with legally binding climate targets, the intersection is low-hanging fruit that gets riper every year the vehicle fleet gets smarter.


What Could Happen

One flagship district goes signal-free by 2035 Most likely

A purpose-built or heavily instrumented district — a Chinese smart-city zone, a Gulf development like Masdar or NEOM, or an autonomous-vehicle-only downtown core — removes signals for vehicles, keeping protected, button-controlled crossings for pedestrians and cyclists. It works, becomes a global pilgrimage site for planners, and the world's cities begin the long argument about who is next.

Lights never vanish — they just stop being dumb Possible

The mixed-traffic problem proves decisive: pedestrians, cyclists, and decades of old cars cannot join a machine ballet. Cities instead universalise adaptive signals that talk to connected cars — green waves timed to your arrival, near-zero pointless waits. The red light survives as a fallback for the unconnected, the way cash survives alongside cards: rarely used, never quite removed.

An early failure freezes the idea for a generation Less likely

A signal-free pilot suffers a high-profile fatality involving a pedestrian or a hacked vehicle, and the political appetite evaporates overnight. Regulators mandate signals wherever people walk, algorithmic-priority schemes are attacked as toll roads for the rich — who gets the fast slot through the intersection? — and the concept retreats to freight ports and campuses until the 2040s.

Our Assessment
We assign 55% probability — moderately likely that at least one major city district eliminates traffic signals in favour of vehicle-to-vehicle coordination by 2035. The engineering is largely proven and the incentives — capacity, emissions, prestige — are powerful. The key uncertainty is the mixed street: the technology works when everything is networked, and real cities contain children, cyclists, and 1998 Corollas. That is why the first signal-free district will almost certainly be somewhere new-built or tightly controlled, not a retrofit of Manhattan. The equity question — whose car gets priority when an algorithm allocates the slots — will be the fiercest fight of the rollout.

What Can We Do

Pedestrians crossing a calm shared-space street in a European town without traffic signals

The intersection of 2035 is being designed now, in city budgets and vehicle standards. There are practical ways to benefit early and shape what arrives.

Support adaptive signals in your own city today. Systems like Surtrac and Green Light are cheap, proven, and cut your commute now. When your council debates transport budgets, smart signal retrofits deliver more time back per dollar than almost any road project — ask for them by name.

When you next buy a car, check for V2X support. Connected-vehicle features will increasingly determine which lanes, districts, and priority schemes your car can use — and its resale value into the 2030s. It is the new equivalent of buying a car with GPS in 2005.

Defend the pedestrian in every consultation. The signal-free intersection is optimised for vehicles; walkers and cyclists must be designed in, not patched in. Residents who show up to planning meetings asking one question — "how does a child cross this street?" — will shape these districts more than any lobbyist.

Ask the equity question early. When intersections become algorithms, priority becomes a product someone can sell — express slots for those who pay. Cities that ban paid priority before deployment will avoid the ugliest version of this future. Raise it before the system ships, because rules are softest at the start.

Sources
  • MIT Senseable City Lab — "Light Traffic: Slot-Based Intersections" Research, 2016–2024
  • Carnegie Mellon / Rapid Flow — Surtrac Pittsburgh Deployment Results
  • Google Research — Project Green Light City Reports, 2024–2025
  • Shared Space Institute — Drachten and Dutch Shared-Space Safety Data
  • Urban Mobility Quarterly — "After the Signal," 2025
  • Forecast The World Research Desk — 800+ data sources