The Question
When Uber launched in 2009, its model was simple: classify drivers as independent contractors, not employees, and thereby avoid the costs of health insurance, unemployment contributions, workers' compensation, and paid leave. That model became the template for an entire economic sector. Today, roughly 36% of the US workforce — about 60 million people — does some form of gig or freelance work. About 16 million do it as their primary income source.
The specific question we are predicting: will federal legislation establish a system of portable benefits — benefits that attach to the worker rather than the employer, moving with them from gig to gig — by 2032? We put the probability at 58%. That is a coin-flip with a slight lean toward yes. The forces are powerful. The obstacles are too. What tips it is the sheer political weight of 60 million workers who are one medical bill away from financial collapse.
What the Evidence Shows
The human cost of the current system is not abstract. A 2024 survey by the Freelancers Union found that 53% of full-time gig workers had delayed medical care due to cost in the prior year. Forty-one percent had no retirement savings of any kind. Twenty-eight percent had experienced an income disruption of more than 30 days in the prior 12 months with no safety net to absorb it. These are not the statistics of an empowered independent workforce. They are the statistics of a workforce that has been systematically stripped of protection.
Meanwhile, the platforms that depend on this workforce are extraordinarily profitable. Uber generated $37 billion in revenue in 2024. DoorDash, $10 billion. The argument that extending basic labour protections would destroy the platform economy has been tested — most directly in California, where Prop 22 in 2020 allowed platforms to maintain contractor status for drivers while mandating certain minimum earnings guarantees. The platforms did not collapse. They adapted.
"The social contract of the 20th century attached benefits to jobs. The economy of the 21st century is destroying that attachment. We need a new contract — one where your rights as a worker move with you, not with your employer."
— Senator Mark Warner, Portable Benefits for Independent Workers Pilot Program Act, 2024The European Union moved first at scale. The EU Platform Workers Directive, adopted in 2024, creates a legal presumption of employee status for platform workers unless platforms can prove otherwise — effectively shifting the burden of proof. Several EU member states have gone further with portable benefits systems. The US has watched this happen. Policy borrowing across the Atlantic is slow, but it does happen.
"The gig economy was built on the idea that freedom from a boss was worth the loss of a safety net. It turns out, most workers never agreed to that trade."
Why This Is Happening
The gig workforce has reached political mass. Sixty million workers represent roughly a third of the voting-age population. They are distributed across every congressional district. They include not just drivers and delivery workers but nurses, lawyers, software engineers, and journalists working as independent contractors. This is no longer a niche workforce that can be politically ignored. As full-time gig dependency grows, the electoral consequences of inaction grow with it.
Platform profitability removes the economic excuse. For years, platforms argued that the margins of the gig economy could not absorb employment costs. That argument is harder to sustain when Uber has posted consecutive years of profitability and its CEO earned $40 million in 2024. The argument has shifted from "we cannot afford it" to "our model depends on flexibility" — a weaker claim, and one that policy designs like portable benefits directly address without eliminating flexibility.
State-level experiments are creating a template. Washington state passed a portable benefits law for app-based drivers in 2022. New York has done similar. These are not perfect systems, but they are functioning ones — demonstrating that you can give gig workers healthcare contributions, paid sick leave accrual, and basic accident insurance without the platforms shutting down or leaving the state. Federal lawmakers have a working model to draw from.
What Could Happen
Federal action stalls in a divided Congress. But states keep moving. By 2032, roughly 20 states have passed some form of portable benefits or minimum-earnings guarantee for gig workers. The result is a patchwork that protects roughly half the gig workforce to some degree — a significant improvement over the current nothing, but unequal and inconsistent. Platforms manage compliance state by state. A national law remains aspirational but does not arrive by 2032.
A bipartisan coalition — combining progressive concern for worker protection with conservative interest in entrepreneurship and flexibility — coalesces around a portable benefits framework that explicitly preserves contractor status while mandating per-hour benefit contributions from platforms. Senator Warner's framework, or something like it, passes by 2030. This is possible rather than likely because it requires legislative focus and cross-party agreement on labour that has eluded Congress for a decade.
Court rulings or regulatory action force reclassification of a significant share of gig workers as employees, triggering a rapid industry shift. Platforms absorb the costs, adjust their pricing and workforce size, and gig work becomes a smaller, better-protected sector. This scenario produces the strongest protections but eliminates the flexibility that many gig workers genuinely value. Less likely in the six-year window because platforms will litigate fiercely and have done so successfully.
What Can We Do
Until the law changes, gig workers are on their own. That is an unfair position — but there are ways to build protection within the current system.
Treat health insurance as a non-negotiable expense. The ACA marketplace offers subsidised coverage for lower-income self-employed workers that many gig workers qualify for and do not claim. Healthcare.gov's subsidy calculator shows what you would actually pay. For many full-time gig workers in moderate income brackets, monthly premiums are lower than expected.
Open a SEP-IRA or solo 401(k). Self-employed workers can contribute significantly more to retirement accounts than traditional employees — up to $69,000 per year in a solo 401(k) depending on earnings. The tax benefits are substantial. Most gig workers never set these up, leaving significant savings on the table.
Build a personal emergency fund equivalent to three months of expenses. The income volatility of gig work makes this more critical than for traditional employees. Without an employer-backed unemployment system, self-insurance through savings is the only buffer against income disruption.
Support Freelancers Union advocacy and join your state's portable benefits campaign. The Freelancers Union has active campaigns in multiple states and provides both political advocacy and practical resources, including group health coverage options for members. Collective voice matters, even for workers who work alone.
- Freelancers Union — Independent Worker Survey, 2024
- McKinsey Global Institute — Independent Work: Choice, Necessity, and the Gig Economy, 2024
- European Commission — Platform Workers Directive, 2024
- Washington State Department of Labor — App-Based Worker Benefits Law, 2022
- Upwork — Freelance Forward: The State of the US Independent Workforce, 2025
- Forecast The World Research Desk — 800+ data sources