https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ Probability forecasts on technology, economy, health, climate, geopolitics, and global affairs. en-us Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Two_Billion_Transfer/Two_Billion_Transfer.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Two_Billion_Transfer/Two_Billion_Transfer.html Neymar's €222M record has stood since 2017, held back by Financial Fair Play and free-agent stars. But sovereign wealth and a legal shake-up could break the ceiling. We assign 44% probability that by 2036, a single football transfer fee reaches $2 billion — more than most stadiums cost. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Ukraine_Ceasefire_Border/Ukraine_Ceasefire_Border.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Ukraine_Ceasefire_Border/Ukraine_Ceasefire_Border.html Four years into Europe's largest war since 1945, diplomacy has produced prisoner exchanges and short pauses but no peace. We assign 68% probability that by 2035, a negotiated ceasefire line — not a signed treaty — will function as Ukraine's de facto eastern border. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/New_Cold_War/New_Cold_War.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/New_Cold_War/New_Cold_War.html Chip export bans, rival alliance blocs, and a 2025 tariff war that hit triple digits before a Geneva truce — the US–China rivalry now touches every industry. We assign 79% probability that this contest remains the world's defining geopolitical struggle into the 2040s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Taiwan_Economic_Shock/Taiwan_Economic_Shock.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Taiwan_Economic_Shock/Taiwan_Economic_Shock.html Taiwan produces roughly 90% of the world's most advanced chips, and economists estimate a war over the island would cost about $10 trillion in its first year. We assign 86% probability that any direct US–China confrontation over Taiwan would trigger a global economic shock larger than 2008 and the pandemic combined. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Iran_Escalation_Risk/Iran_Escalation_Risk.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Iran_Escalation_Risk/Iran_Escalation_Risk.html Two Israel–Iran wars in thirteen months ended with an unpublished 14-point memorandum signed June 17, 2026. We assign 70% probability that a wider regional war involving Iran remains the decade's largest escalation risk. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/AI_Superpower_Battleground/AI_Superpower_Battleground.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/AI_Superpower_Battleground/AI_Superpower_Battleground.html Since 2022, the United States has used export controls to deny China the most advanced AI chips, while China races to build its own. We assign 85% probability that artificial intelligence becomes the central arena of US–China strategic rivalry through the 2030s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Actors_License_Faces/Actors_License_Faces.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Actors_License_Faces/Actors_License_Faces.html The 2023 SAG-AFTRA strike was fought over digital replicas. James Earl Jones licensed Darth Vader's voice before he died. We assign 72% probability that by 2033, licensing your face and voice is a standard actor revenue stream. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Airport_Without_Lines/Airport_Without_Lines.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Airport_Without_Lines/Airport_Without_Lines.html The shoe rule is dead, CT scanners are killing the liquids rule, and your face is becoming your boarding pass. We assign 78% probability that by 2032, passengers at major hubs will clear security without stopping, unpacking, or removing shoes. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/US_Policy_Swings/US_Policy_Swings.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/US_Policy_Swings/US_Policy_Swings.html The United States has entered and exited the Iran nuclear deal, the Paris climate agreement, and major trade pacts within a few years, leaving allies planning around Washington's unpredictability. We assign 82% probability that through the 2030s, allies and adversaries alike will hedge against American foreign-policy reversals every election cycle. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Animals_Legal_Rights/Animals_Legal_Rights.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Animals_Legal_Rights/Animals_Legal_Rights.html Courts have already granted habeas corpus to a chimpanzee. India's Supreme Court declared animals have rights. The legal personhood of animals is not a future debate — it has already begun. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Billionaires_Good_Or_Bad/Billionaires_Good_Or_Bad.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Billionaires_Good_Or_Bad/Billionaires_Good_Or_Bad.html Billionaires fund innovation and create jobs — but concentrated wealth also warps politics, inflates housing, and narrows opportunity. Our model gives 44% probability that by 2034, meaningful policy constraints on billionaire wealth accumulation will arrive in at least 3 of the world's 10 largest economies. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Unions_Making_A_Comeback/Unions_Making_A_Comeback.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Unions_Making_A_Comeback/Unions_Making_A_Comeback.html Starbucks baristas, Amazon workers, Hollywood writers — after decades of decline, unions are suddenly newsworthy again. We assign 63% probability that by 2031, U.S. union membership will rise to levels not seen since the 1990s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Authoritarians_Outnumber/Authoritarians_Outnumber.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Authoritarians_Outnumber/Authoritarians_Outnumber.html After nearly two decades of net decline in global freedom, most of the world's people now live under autocratic rule. We assign 74% probability that authoritarian governments continue to outnumber democracies through the 2030s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Batteries_60_Seconds/Batteries_60_Seconds.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Batteries_60_Seconds/Batteries_60_Seconds.html CATL's batteries add 400 km of range in 10 minutes, BYD is flash-charging at megawatt power, and solid-state cells are leaving the lab. We assign 76% probability that by 2031, a mainstream device or vehicle will charge empty-to-full in under five minutes. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Beyond_Opioids/Beyond_Opioids.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Beyond_Opioids/Beyond_Opioids.html 50 million Americans live with chronic pain. With 80,000 opioid deaths per year and a new generation of non-opioid drugs arriving, medicine is being forced to rethink everything. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Border_Walls/Border_Walls.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Border_Walls/Border_Walls.html Physical barriers between nations have multiplied many times over since the Cold War ended. We assign 71% probability that by 2035, the number of fortified borders keeps rising even as trade, data, and travel bind the world tighter. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Majority_Over_30/Majority_Over_30.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Majority_Over_30/Majority_Over_30.html For the first time in history, the world's median age is crossing 30 and climbing. We assign 72% probability that by 2035, most of humanity is over 30, ending the era of the young, fast-growing planet. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Small_Businesses_vs_Amazon/Small_Businesses_vs_Amazon.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Small_Businesses_vs_Amazon/Small_Businesses_vs_Amazon.html Amazon has won on price and speed. But a counter-movement is building. We give 52% probability that by 2032, small retailers who survive will do so by offering something Amazon structurally cannot — genuine local identity and human connection. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Buy_A_Home_Before_40/Buy_A_Home_Before_40.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Buy_A_Home_Before_40/Buy_A_Home_Before_40.html Soaring prices, high interest rates, and stagnant wages have made homeownership a generational dividing line. We give 31% probability that fewer than 1 in 3 Americans under 40 will own the home they live in by 2034. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Can_Single_Income_Support_A_Family/Can_Single_Income_Support_A_Family.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Can_Single_Income_Support_A_Family/Can_Single_Income_Support_A_Family.html In 1970, one median salary could buy a house, raise children, and save for retirement. Our model gives only 28% probability that a single median income will be sufficient to support a family of four in most US cities by 2034 — the structural economics have moved decisively in the wrong direction. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Can_Americans_Retire_Before_70/Can_Americans_Retire_Before_70.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Can_Americans_Retire_Before_70/Can_Americans_Retire_Before_70.html Social Security is underfunded, pensions are extinct, and most Americans have less than $50,000 saved. Our model gives only 38% probability that the average American will retire before age 70 by 2040 — making working into the late 60s the new default. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Cancers_New_Future/Cancers_New_Future.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Cancers_New_Future/Cancers_New_Future.html Five-year survival rates have climbed from 49% to 69% since 1975. CAR-T cells, mRNA vaccines, and AI diagnostics are remaking oncology — but the financial and racial costs of cancer remain deeply unequal. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Celebrity_AI_Clones/Celebrity_AI_Clones.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Celebrity_AI_Clones/Celebrity_AI_Clones.html Meta built celebrity AI chatbots, one influencer's AI clone charged $1 a minute, and K-pop agencies already sell paid private fan messages. We assign 63% probability that by 2031, official AI versions of major celebrities are a mainstream fan product. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Taiwan_Pressure_Campaign/Taiwan_Pressure_Campaign.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Taiwan_Pressure_Campaign/Taiwan_Pressure_Campaign.html PLA exercises, cable cuts, coast guard patrols, and economic coercion have pushed pressure on Taiwan to record levels. We assign 76% probability that China pursues reunification through sustained pressure rather than a full invasion by 2035. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Havens/Climate_Havens.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Havens/Climate_Havens.html Duluth, Buffalo, Madison — cold, overlooked cities are quietly marketing themselves as refuges from a warming world. We assign 64% probability that by 2040, climate resilience becomes a primary driver of US internal migration. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Refugees/Climate_Refugees.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Refugees/Climate_Refugees.html Weather disasters already uproot more people than war — and the law has no word for them. We assign 66% probability that by 2035, climate displacement exceeds conflict displacement tenfold, forcing the world to rewrite the very definition of a refugee. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Proof_Jobs/Climate_Proof_Jobs.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Proof_Jobs/Climate_Proof_Jobs.html Solar and wind technicians already top the US fastest-growing job lists. Electricians, heat pump installers, grid engineers, and climate risk analysts are next. We assign 77% probability that by 2032, climate-driven professions rank among the fastest-growing job categories in developed economies. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Concert_Tickets_1000/Concert_Tickets_1000.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Concert_Tickets_1000/Concert_Tickets_1000.html The Eras Tour grossed over $2 billion, Oasis fans watched prices jump from £135 to £355 in a queue, and average ticket prices have tripled since the 2000s. We assign 75% probability that by 2032, $1,000+ is the normal price for a good seat at an A-list stadium show. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Critical_Minerals/Critical_Minerals.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Critical_Minerals/Critical_Minerals.html China refines most of the world's rare earths, lithium, and other critical minerals, and has begun restricting their export. As clean-energy demand quadruples, we assign 78% probability that critical minerals become a major source of geopolitical conflict in the 2030s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Coral_Reefs_Die/Coral_Reefs_Die.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Coral_Reefs_Die/Coral_Reefs_Die.html A fourth global bleaching event has hit more than 70% of the world's reefs. We assign 72% probability that by 2040, the majority of tropical coral reefs will be functionally dead — the first great ecosystem humanity watches collapse in high definition. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Cyber_War_Recognized/Cyber_War_Recognized.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Cyber_War_Recognized/Cyber_War_Recognized.html State-linked cyberattacks have crippled power grids, pipelines, and companies for over a decade, yet none has ever been formally declared an act of war. We assign 75% probability that a cyberattack is officially recognized as an act of war by 2032. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Day_Zero_Water/Day_Zero_Water.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Day_Zero_Water/Day_Zero_Water.html Cape Town came within 90 days. Mexico City is sinking as it drinks its own foundations. Bogotá and Bangalore rationed in 2024. We assign 57% probability that before 2035, a city of over one million people experiences true Day Zero — taps off, queues at water points. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Dead_Celebrities_Earn_More/Dead_Celebrities_Earn_More.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Dead_Celebrities_Earn_More/Dead_Celebrities_Earn_More.html Michael Jackson's estate has earned hundreds of millions a year since 2009. ABBA plays to sold-out arenas as digital avatars. We assign 81% probability that by 2033, the very top of the entertainment earnings chart holds more dead stars than living ones. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Digital_Nomads/Digital_Nomads.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Digital_Nomads/Digital_Nomads.html Remote work has turned location-independent living from a lifestyle experiment into a durable social category. We assign 74% probability that by 2035, digital nomads constitute an established, policy-recognised global class. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Digital_Smell/Digital_Smell.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Digital_Smell/Digital_Smell.html A Google spinoff has already teleported a scent — scanned in one lab, reprinted in another. Digital noses can smell disease on your breath. After 60 years of flops, smell is finally being digitized. 41% probability by 2034. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Does_Having_Children_Make_You_Happier_In_2030/Does_Having_Children_Make_You_Happier_In_2030.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Does_Having_Children_Make_You_Happier_In_2030/Does_Having_Children_Make_You_Happier_In_2030.html The happiness data on parenthood has always been complicated. Studies show parents experience more highs AND more lows than non-parents. But something is… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Drone_Warfare/Drone_Warfare.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Drone_Warfare/Drone_Warfare.html Small drones now cause the majority of battlefield equipment losses in Ukraine, which built around 2.2 million of them in 2024, and a $500 drone can destroy a $10 million tank. We assign 90% probability that every major military reorganizes around unmanned systems by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/East_Meets_West/East_Meets_West.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/East_Meets_West/East_Meets_West.html We give a 63% probability that integrative medicine — blending evidence-backed complementary therapies with conventional care — will be standard practice in… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Europe_Defends_Itself/Europe_Defends_Itself.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Europe_Defends_Itself/Europe_Defends_Itself.html At NATO's Hague summit in June 2025, allies pledged 5% of GDP for defense while the EU mobilizes up to €800 billion and Germany rewrote its constitution to fund rearmament. We assign 83% probability that by the early 2030s Europe carries the primary conventional burden of its own defense. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/AI_Commentators/AI_Commentators.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/AI_Commentators/AI_Commentators.html IBM already generates AI commentary at Wimbledon and the Masters. ElevenLabs clones voices in real time. We assign 77% probability that by 2031, personalized AI commentary — any language, any style — is a standard option on major sports broadcasts. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Everyone_Gets_A_Life_Coach/Everyone_Gets_A_Life_Coach.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Everyone_Gets_A_Life_Coach/Everyone_Gets_A_Life_Coach.html AI is democratising access to personal guidance, goal-setting, and accountability once reserved for the wealthy elite. Our model gives 74% probability that AI coaching becomes a standard daily tool for personal development by 2028. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Flying_Taxis/Flying_Taxis.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Flying_Taxis/Flying_Taxis.html Electric air taxis are already certified and flying passengers in China, Dubai has signed launch deals, and United Airlines has ordered hundreds. We assign 68% probability that by 2030, scheduled flying taxi services will operate in at least five major cities. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Gaming_Bigger_Than_All/Gaming_Bigger_Than_All.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Gaming_Bigger_Than_All/Gaming_Bigger_Than_All.html Gaming already earns around $185 billion a year — more than global box office and recorded music together. With 3 billion players and Hollywood buying in, we assign 87% probability that by 2032, gaming revenue exceeds movies, music, and live sports combined. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Gaza_Reconstruction/Gaza_Reconstruction.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Gaza_Reconstruction/Gaza_Reconstruction.html Nine months after the October 2025 ceasefire, only about 0.5% of Gaza's rubble has been cleared and over a million people lack permanent shelter. We assign 74% probability that Gaza's reconstruction becomes the defining test of a post-war Middle East order. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Green_Energy_Bill/Green_Energy_Bill.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Green_Energy_Bill/Green_Energy_Bill.html Solar and wind are the cheapest electricity ever built, yet household bills keep climbing. Gas still sets the price, and the grid rebuild lands on your invoice. We assign only 48% probability that average household electricity bills fall meaningfully in real terms by 2033. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Languages_Vanish/Languages_Vanish.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Languages_Vanish/Languages_Vanish.html Thousands of the world's languages have only a handful of elderly speakers left and no children learning them. We assign 66% probability that by 2100, at least half of today's roughly 7,000 languages will be extinct or effectively silent. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Healthcare_For_All/Healthcare_For_All.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Healthcare_For_All/Healthcare_For_All.html We give a 48% probability that universal health coverage — access to essential care without financial ruin — will reach 75% of the world's population by 2035.… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Hearing_Aid_Superpowers/Hearing_Aid_Superpowers.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Hearing_Aid_Superpowers/Hearing_Aid_Superpowers.html AirPods are now FDA-authorised hearing aids, earbuds translate languages in real time, and AI can isolate one voice in a roaring room. We assign 70% probability that by 2031, hearing enhancement will be mainstream — worn by people with perfect hearing. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Hollywood_Rivals/Hollywood_Rivals.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Hollywood_Rivals/Hollywood_Rivals.html Squid Game became Netflix's most-watched title ever. Parasite took Best Picture. Nollywood makes 2,500 films a year. We assign 67% probability that by 2033, non-English productions regularly top global streaming charts and mint the next generation's biggest stars. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Insurance_Collapse/Insurance_Collapse.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Insurance_Collapse/Insurance_Collapse.html State Farm and Allstate have stopped writing new policies in California. Florida's insurers are fleeing. Premiums have doubled in five years in high-risk zip codes. We assign 86% probability that by 2032, home insurance will be unaffordable or unavailable in high-risk zones of at least 10 US states. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/How_We_Remember/How_We_Remember.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/How_We_Remember/How_We_Remember.html We are documenting more than any generation in history — and remembering less. The paradox of the photo-saturated age is that we are outsourcing memory to devices and losing the lived experience in the process. Our model gives a 71% probability that by 2030, how we remember and mark the moments of our lives will shift fundamentally toward quality over quantity. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Hyperloop_Successor/Hyperloop_Successor.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Hyperloop_Successor/Hyperloop_Successor.html Hyperloop One burned $450 million and died. But its descendants — cargo tubes, next-generation maglev, and Europe's test tracks — are quietly building what the hype promised. 48% probability of commercial service by 2035. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/India_Swing_Power/India_Swing_Power.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/India_Swing_Power/India_Swing_Power.html The world's most populous nation buys Russian oil, drills with American forces, and leads the Global South — refusing to join any bloc. We assign 73% probability that by 2035, India will be the decisive swing power of world politics, courted by every side and controlled by none. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Insects_Food_Supply/Insects_Food_Supply.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Insects_Food_Supply/Insects_Food_Supply.html The EU has approved mealworms and locusts for human food. They're already in pet food and fish feed. Soon they'll be in your protein powder — and you won't know. 83% probability. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Is_Loneliness_A_Disease/Is_Loneliness_A_Disease.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Is_Loneliness_A_Disease/Is_Loneliness_A_Disease.html The US Surgeon General declared a loneliness epidemic in 2023. Evidence links chronic isolation to a 26% higher mortality risk — equivalent to smoking 15 cigarettes daily. 81% confidence. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Japan_Rearmament/Japan_Rearmament.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Japan_Rearmament/Japan_Rearmament.html Since adopting a landmark security strategy in December 2022, Japan has doubled defense spending toward 2% of GDP, ordered up to 400 Tomahawk missiles, and launched a sixth-generation fighter program with Britain and Italy. We assign 81% probability that by 2035 Japan fields one of the world's five most capable militaries. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Software_Job_Interviews/Software_Job_Interviews.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Software_Job_Interviews/Software_Job_Interviews.html HireVue has scored millions of video interviews for Unilever and Goldman Sachs. Resume software rejects candidates no human ever sees. We assign 82% probability that by 2030, most first-round interviews at large companies will involve no human interviewer. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Player_Eye_Sports/Player_Eye_Sports.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Player_Eye_Sports/Player_Eye_Sports.html Referee cams are already live, cameras have shrunk light enough for jerseys, and headsets can put you on the pitch. We assign 63% probability that by 2031, first-person athlete views will be a standard broadcast option in major sports. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Holographic_Courtside/Holographic_Courtside.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Holographic_Courtside/Holographic_Courtside.html Apple Vision Pro streams NBA games in immersive video, Cosm builds mini-Spheres in LA and Dallas, and volumetric cameras rebuild plays in 3D. We assign 54% probability that by 2032, immersive virtual attendance is a standard paid option for major leagues. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Living_To_150/Living_To_150.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Living_To_150/Living_To_150.html We give a 31% probability that someone alive today will live to 150 years old. The science of resetting cellular ageing is more serious than most people… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Lab_Meat_Cheaper/Lab_Meat_Cheaper.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Lab_Meat_Cheaper/Lab_Meat_Cheaper.html Cultivated meat has dropped from $330,000 per burger in 2013 to competitive pricing today. We assess whether lab-grown meat will undercut conventional beef at the supermarket checkout by 2034. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Ocean_Deep_Explorers/Ocean_Deep_Explorers.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Ocean_Deep_Explorers/Ocean_Deep_Explorers.html Twelve people have walked on the Moon. For decades, only three had reached the ocean's deepest point. We assign 58% probability that by 2035, more people will have visited the deepest trenches than have walked on the Moon. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Movie_Theaters_Luxury/Movie_Theaters_Luxury.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Movie_Theaters_Luxury/Movie_Theaters_Luxury.html Attendance is stuck 30-40% below 2019, yet IMAX and luxury dine-in theaters are breaking records. We assign 66% probability that by 2032, the majority of surviving theaters in developed markets are premium-format venues — fewer, better, and pricier. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Fossils_In_Drawers/Fossils_In_Drawers.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Fossils_In_Drawers/Fossils_In_Drawers.html The world's museums store tens of millions of fossils that no specialist has ever examined. We assign 83% probability that by 2035, AI-assisted cataloguing makes more major fossil discoveries inside museums than in the field. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/NATO_Article_5_Test/NATO_Article_5_Test.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/NATO_Article_5_Test/NATO_Article_5_Test.html NATO's collective-defense pledge has been invoked exactly once in 75 years, and it is now being probed by sabotage, cable-cutting, GPS jamming, and drone incursions engineered to stay below its threshold. We assign 77% probability that this sub-threshold campaign intensifies and decides Article 5 credibility without ever triggering it. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Obesity_Overtakes_Hunger/Obesity_Overtakes_Hunger.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Obesity_Overtakes_Hunger/Obesity_Overtakes_Hunger.html For most of history, too little food was humanity's great threat. Now too much is catching up and overtaking it. We assign 69% probability that by 2035, obesity-linked disease outweighs hunger as a driver of death and ill health worldwide. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Racket_Revolution/Racket_Revolution.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Racket_Revolution/Racket_Revolution.html Pickleball has been America's fastest-growing sport three years running. Padel has 25 million players worldwide. We assign 70% probability that by 2031, padel and pickleball combined have more regular players than tennis. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/End_Of_Chronic_Pain/End_Of_Chronic_Pain.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/End_Of_Chronic_Pain/End_Of_Chronic_Pain.html A handful of people are born genetically unable to feel physical pain. Their DNA has revealed the exact molecular switch that pain runs through. We assign 68% probability that by 2038, a new class of non-addictive painkillers built on these genes reaches patients worldwide. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Pets_Over_Children/Pets_Over_Children.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Pets_Over_Children/Pets_Over_Children.html Pets already outnumber children in households across the US, UK, and Australia. This is not a quirk — it is a structural shift in how adults find meaning,… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Phoenix_130F/Phoenix_130F.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Phoenix_130F/Phoenix_130F.html Phoenix endured 31 straight days above 110°F in 2023, and 645 people died of heat in one county. The record is 122°F — and climbing. We assign 54% probability that by 2035, Phoenix records a temperature of 130°F or higher. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Physical_Mail/Physical_Mail.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Physical_Mail/Physical_Mail.html Letter volumes have collapsed by more than half since their peak. We give 61% probability that by 2035 most developed nations will scale back or end universal daily letter delivery. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Real_Time_Translation/Real_Time_Translation.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Real_Time_Translation/Real_Time_Translation.html Instant, natural voice translation is moving from novelty to utility. We assign 77% probability that by 2035, real-time translation makes cross-language conversation effortless for most people with a smartphone or earbud. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Sky_Rivers/Sky_Rivers.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Sky_Rivers/Sky_Rivers.html Atmospheric rivers — invisible corridors of water vapor in the sky — can carry up to 15 times the flow of the Mississippi River. We assign 78% probability that by 2035, forecasting them becomes as routine and skilled as hurricane tracking. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Robot_Referees/Robot_Referees.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Robot_Referees/Robot_Referees.html Semi-automated offside decided goals at the 2022 World Cup. Tennis has already fired its line judges. We assign 79% probability that by 2032, machines make the final decision on most major calls in top football, tennis, and cricket. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Sanctions_Losing_Power/Sanctions_Losing_Power.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Sanctions_Losing_Power/Sanctions_Losing_Power.html The West hit Russia with more than 20,000 sanctions after 2022, yet its economy grew, while long-running sanctions on Iran, Venezuela, and North Korea failed to topple those governments. We assign 71% probability that by 2035 sanctions will be visibly losing their power as rivals build parallel financial systems. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Robot_Caregivers/Robot_Caregivers.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Robot_Caregivers/Robot_Caregivers.html Japan already deploys robot seals, lifting machines, and caregiver exoskeletons in nursing homes, and New York State hands out companion robots to lonely seniors. We assign 74% probability that robotic assistance will be standard in elder care across most developed countries by 2033. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Slow_Living_Is_Winning/Slow_Living_Is_Winning.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Slow_Living_Is_Winning/Slow_Living_Is_Winning.html The intentional, unhurried life is outperforming hustle culture on every wellbeing metric. Our model gives 71% probability that slow living becomes the dominant lifestyle aspiration for adults under 45 by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Snow_Tourist_Attraction/Snow_Tourist_Attraction.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Snow_Tourist_Attraction/Snow_Tourist_Attraction.html The Alps are warming twice as fast as the planet. French villages are dismantling their ski lifts, and artificial snow is losing its fight below 1,500 meters. We assign 74% probability that by 2035, over half of Europe's historic low-altitude ski resorts will have closed or converted to snowless tourism. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Space_Solar_Power/Space_Solar_Power.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Space_Solar_Power/Space_Solar_Power.html Caltech has already beamed solar power from orbit. China, Japan, Europe, and the UK are racing to scale it up. Sunlight around the clock, no clouds, no night — beamed to your grid. 44% probability of commercial delivery by 2035. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Solar_Cheapest_Energy/Solar_Cheapest_Energy.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Solar_Cheapest_Energy/Solar_Cheapest_Energy.html Solar panel prices have fallen about 90% in 15 years, and batteries are following the same curve. The IEA already calls solar the cheapest electricity in history. We assign 81% probability that by 2033, solar plus batteries will be the cheapest energy ever harnessed across most of the world. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Space_Militarization/Space_Militarization.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Space_Militarization/Space_Militarization.html More than 12,000 active satellites now orbit Earth, modern militaries depend on them, and several powers have tested weapons that can destroy them. We assign 80% probability that space becomes an openly contested military domain through the 2030s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Sports_Betting_Giant/Sports_Betting_Giant.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Sports_Betting_Giant/Sports_Betting_Giant.html Americans now wager over $120 billion a year, betting logos cover shirts and broadcasts, and every moment of play is becoming a market. We assign 84% probability that by 2031, global sports betting revenue exceeds the combined revenue of the leagues being bet on. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Livestream_Concerts/Livestream_Concerts.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Livestream_Concerts/Livestream_Concerts.html BTS sold 756,000 stream tickets in one night. Taylor Swift's concert film out-grossed most Hollywood releases. We assign 61% probability that by 2032, major tours earn more from streams, films, and virtual attendance than from the physical crowd. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Dangerous_Decade/Dangerous_Decade.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Dangerous_Decade/Dangerous_Decade.html Nuclear arms control has lapsed, multiple wars run at once, great-power rivalry touches every domain, and entirely new arenas of conflict have opened in cyber, space, and AI. We assign 69% probability that the 2030s prove the most dangerous decade since the Cold War. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_AI_Doctor/The_AI_Doctor.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_AI_Doctor/The_AI_Doctor.html AI outperforms radiologists in mammography screening and detects diabetic retinopathy with 90%+ accuracy. FDA-approved diagnostic tools are multiplying — but liability, trust, and access remain unresolved. 76% confidence. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Amateur_Sports_Boom/The_Amateur_Sports_Boom.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Amateur_Sports_Boom/The_Amateur_Sports_Boom.html More adults are playing sport than at any point since the 1970s. Not watching — playing. Padel, pickleball, five-a-side football, trail running, masters swimming. The amateur sports boom is real, growing, and reshaping how adults spend their time and build community. Our model gives a 79% probability that this becomes one of the dominant social movements of the 2030s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Arctic_Gold_Rush/Arctic_Gold_Rush.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Arctic_Gold_Rush/Arctic_Gold_Rush.html As the ice retreats, the top of the world is opening for business — and for conflict. Russia, China, and NATO are all racing north. We assign 69% probability that by 2033, the Arctic sees a serious international confrontation over shipping lanes or resources. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Arctic_Competition/Arctic_Competition.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Arctic_Competition/Arctic_Competition.html The Arctic is warming three to four times faster than the planet, melting ice, opening sea routes, and exposing vast oil, gas, and mineral wealth just as Russia, China, and NATO circle the region. We assign 77% probability that Arctic great-power competition intensifies through the 2030s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Bathroom_Doctors_Office/Bathroom_Doctors_Office.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Bathroom_Doctors_Office/Bathroom_Doctors_Office.html Smart toilets already analyse urine at home, mirrors can read your heart rate with light, and Stanford has built a toilet that recognises you. We assign 66% probability that by 2033, passive bathroom monitoring will catch diseases earlier than annual checkups. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Semiconductor_Supremacy/Semiconductor_Supremacy.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Semiconductor_Supremacy/Semiconductor_Supremacy.html The most advanced chips are made by a handful of firms using machines only one Dutch company can build, and every modern economy and military depends on them. We assign 83% probability that semiconductors remain a defining strategic contest of the decade. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Case_For_Living_Smaller/The_Case_For_Living_Smaller.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Case_For_Living_Smaller/The_Case_For_Living_Smaller.html Households that deliberately downsized report 23% lower stress, lower costs, stronger community ties, and higher life satisfaction. The data on smaller… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Classroom_Of_2034/The_Classroom_Of_2034.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Classroom_Of_2034/The_Classroom_Of_2034.html AI tutors, personalized curricula, and project-based learning are already replacing rows of desks in pilot schools. Our model gives 77% probability that by 2034, AI-assisted personalized learning will be the primary delivery method in the majority of public schools across high-income countries. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Tax_Hidden/Climate_Tax_Hidden.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/Climate_Tax_Hidden/Climate_Tax_Hidden.html Olive oil doubled. Orange juice hit records. Cocoa tripled. Insurance, electricity, water, and disaster taxes are all climbing for the same hidden reason. We assign 83% probability that by 2032, the invisible climate surcharge on an average household exceeds $3,000 a year. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/AI_Personalized_Music/AI_Personalized_Music.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/AI_Personalized_Music/AI_Personalized_Music.html Suno, Udio, and Endel are already generating music tailored to you in real time. We assess a 71% probability that AI-composed personalized soundtracks replace the fixed song as the dominant form of music consumption within a decade. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Conversation_Revival/The_Conversation_Revival.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Conversation_Revival/The_Conversation_Revival.html We are in the middle of a conversation collapse — shorter messages, fewer words, more emojis, less depth. But a counter-movement is forming: dinner parties without phones, podcast listening clubs, structured conversation events, and people who are choosing real talk over the infinite scroll. Our model gives a 64% probability that meaningful conversation stages a real revival by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Countries_Wealthier_Than_America/Countries_Wealthier_Than_America.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Countries_Wealthier_Than_America/Countries_Wealthier_Than_America.html On GDP per capita, several nations already outrank the US. Our model gives 55% probability that by 2035, at least five countries will have a higher average standard of living than the United States by key quality-of-life measures — not just raw income. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Craft_Renaissance/The_Craft_Renaissance.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Craft_Renaissance/The_Craft_Renaissance.html In an age of perfect algorithmic content and AI-generated everything, millions of people are choosing to make things with their hands — badly, slowly, and with enormous satisfaction. Our model gives a 78% probability that handcraft becomes one of the defining leisure practices of the 2030s, and the psychology behind it is more interesting than you think. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Dinner_Table_Is_Back/The_Dinner_Table_Is_Back.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Dinner_Table_Is_Back/The_Dinner_Table_Is_Back.html Family dinner disappeared gradually over 50 years — replaced by schedules, screens, and separate meals in separate rooms. Now research is revealing exactly what we lost. And a deliberate revival is underway. Our model gives a 73% probability that shared mealtimes make a genuine comeback as a cultural norm by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/EU_Joint_Army/EU_Joint_Army.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/EU_Joint_Army/EU_Joint_Army.html There will be no single European army by decree — defense stays a national matter needing unanimity — but joint brigades, shared procurement, a common defense fund, and an €800bn rearmament plan are quietly assembling one. We assign 62% probability that by 2035 the EU will field a de facto joint military capability. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/End_Of_Cheap_Flights/End_Of_Cheap_Flights.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/climate/climate-articles/End_Of_Cheap_Flights/End_Of_Cheap_Flights.html Jet fuel has flown tax-free since 1944. That era is ending: carbon permits, green fuel mandates, and short-haul bans are landing at once. We assign 61% probability that by 2033, average European ticket prices rise substantially in real terms. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/End_Of_Typing/End_Of_Typing.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/End_Of_Typing/End_Of_Typing.html Voice input is already three times faster than thumbs, speech recognition has passed human accuracy, and neural wristbands can read typing from your nerves. We assign 64% probability that by 2032 most everyday text will be spoken or gestured, not typed. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/End_Of_The_Secret/End_Of_The_Secret.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/End_Of_The_Secret/End_Of_The_Secret.html Cheap microphones, AI transcription, and always-on wearables are dismantling private conversation. We assign 88% probability this becomes the defining reality of the 2030s. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/End_Of_Unipolar_Era/End_Of_Unipolar_Era.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/End_Of_Unipolar_Era/End_Of_Unipolar_Era.html For three decades after the Cold War, one superpower set the rules. That era is closing: military, economic, and technological power are dispersing faster than at any point since 1945. We assign 82% probability that by 2035, no single nation — including the United States — will be able to act as the world's decisive power alone. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Designer_Genetics/Designer_Genetics.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Designer_Genetics/Designer_Genetics.html IVF embryo selection already screens for hundreds of diseases. Polygenic scoring now predicts complex traits. The line between therapy and enhancement is dissolving fast. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Experience_Economy/The_Experience_Economy.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Experience_Economy/The_Experience_Economy.html Younger generations are spending more on experiences and less on possessions than any generation before them. Our model gives 76% probability that by 2032, experiences will represent the majority of discretionary consumer spending across the US and Western Europe. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Fertility_Collapse/The_Fertility_Collapse.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Fertility_Collapse/The_Fertility_Collapse.html Sperm counts have fallen 59% since 1973. PFAS chemicals are in the blood of 97% of Americans. Testosterone is declining across generations. The fertility crisis may be the most consequential environmental story of our time. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/AI_Blockbuster/AI_Blockbuster.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/AI_Blockbuster/AI_Blockbuster.html Text-to-video tools like Sora, Veo, and Runway leapt forward between 2024 and 2026, Netflix aired its first AI-generated final footage, and a $200M look can now be had for $20M. We assign 58% probability that before 2032, a film with majority AI-generated footage tops a weekly global box office chart. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Billion_Dollar_Athlete/Billion_Dollar_Athlete.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Billion_Dollar_Athlete/Billion_Dollar_Athlete.html Shohei Ohtani signed for $700 million, Juan Soto for $765 million, and sovereign wealth funds are pouring billions into sport. We assign 64% probability that before 2035, a single athlete signs a contract worth $1 billion or more. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Game_Indistinguishable/Game_Indistinguishable.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Game_Indistinguishable/Game_Indistinguishable.html Unreal Engine 5, path tracing, and neural rendering are closing the gap between game footage and filmed reality. We assign 56% probability that by 2033, a mainstream game passes a visual Turing test — players can't reliably tell gameplay from a camera. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Mind_To_Mind_Communication/Mind_To_Mind_Communication.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Mind_To_Mind_Communication/Mind_To_Mind_Communication.html In 2013 one person's thought moved another person's hand across a university campus. In 2019 three brains played a game together. Direct brain-to-brain communication is real — and far stranger than anyone predicted. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Brain_Computer_Merge/Brain_Computer_Merge.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Brain_Computer_Merge/Brain_Computer_Merge.html Noland Arbaugh controls a computer cursor with thought alone. Neuralink, BrainGate, Synchron, and Blackrock Neurotech have already implanted chips in dozens of human brains. The merger has begun. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Food_Revolution_2034/The_Food_Revolution_2034.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Food_Revolution_2034/The_Food_Revolution_2034.html Lab-grown meat, AI-personalized nutrition, vertical farms, and the rise of ultra-local food systems are converging. Our model gives 71% probability that by 2034, the average American's diet will include at least one category of food that barely existed in 2020. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Gig_Economy_Grows_Up/Gig_Economy_Grows_Up.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Gig_Economy_Grows_Up/Gig_Economy_Grows_Up.html 60 million Americans freelance, but most have no health insurance, retirement savings, or sick days. Our model gives 58% probability that the US will pass federal legislation guaranteeing portable benefits to gig workers by 2032. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Seabed_Cables/Seabed_Cables.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Seabed_Cables/Seabed_Cables.html Around 99% of all intercontinental data crosses the ocean floor through a few hundred cables no thicker than a garden hose. We assign 81% probability that by 2032, protecting them becomes a formal pillar of national defense in most major economies. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Global_South/Global_South.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Global_South/Global_South.html Emerging economies in Asia, Africa, and Latin America are growing faster than the old industrial powers and already account for a majority of global output by some measures. We assign 64% probability that by 2040, the Global South will produce most of the world's economy. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Great_Unaffordability/The_Great_Unaffordability.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Great_Unaffordability/The_Great_Unaffordability.html Homeownership rates are falling across every age group under 45. Our model gives 72% probability that by 2035, fewer than half of Americans under 40 will own a home — marking the end of homeownership as the default path to stability. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Happiness_Forecast/The_Happiness_Forecast.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Happiness_Forecast/The_Happiness_Forecast.html What does the data actually say about how happy people will be in 2030? We have synthesised the major wellbeing indicators — connection, purpose, health,… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Hidden_Owners/Hidden_Owners.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Hidden_Owners/Hidden_Owners.html A handful of asset managers are the largest shareholders in most big American companies, and anonymous shell firms hide the owners of trillions in assets. We assign 54% probability that by 2032, major economies enforce full beneficial-ownership transparency. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Home_As_Sanctuary/The_Home_As_Sanctuary.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/The_Home_As_Sanctuary/The_Home_As_Sanctuary.html After decades of treating home as a launchpad for life elsewhere, a generation is turning back toward the home as the primary site of meaning, beauty, and rest. Our model gives an 83% probability that the home-as-sanctuary movement becomes a defining feature of how we live by 2030 — and the data behind it is more profound than an interior design trend. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Influencer_Bubble/Influencer_Bubble.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Influencer_Bubble/Influencer_Bubble.html More than 50 million people call themselves creators, yet the median creator earns almost nothing. Brand rates are falling, AI content is flooding feeds, and virtual influencers work for free. We assign 59% probability the influencer market undergoes a major correction by 2031. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Internet_Electricity/Internet_Electricity.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Internet_Electricity/Internet_Electricity.html By one classic estimate, all the electrons carrying the internet's data at any instant weigh about as much as a strawberry. Yet that near-weightless system is becoming an energy giant. We assign 66% probability that by 2035, digital infrastructure consumes roughly 10% of global electricity. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Kindness_Dividend/The_Kindness_Dividend.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Kindness_Dividend/The_Kindness_Dividend.html Science confirms what philosophy always suspected: being kind makes the giver happier than the receiver. Our model gives 82% probability that structured kindness becomes a mainstream daily wellbeing practice by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Languages_Dominating_The_Internet/Languages_Dominating_The_Internet.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Languages_Dominating_The_Internet/Languages_Dominating_The_Internet.html English built the internet but the next billion users speak Mandarin, Hindi, Spanish, and Arabic. Our model gives 61% probability that English's share of global internet content will fall below 40% by 2034 as AI translation eliminates the English-language advantage. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Last_Human_Pilot/Last_Human_Pilot.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Last_Human_Pilot/Last_Human_Pilot.html Modern jets fly themselves 99% of the time. Autonomous cargo drones, eVTOL taxis, and a global pilot shortage are accelerating the end of the human cockpit. 85% probability by 2045. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Moon_Population/Moon_Population.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Moon_Population/Moon_Population.html NASA's Artemis program, China's lunar research station, and SpaceX's Starship are converging on the same goal: people living on the Moon in continuous rotation, like Antarctica in the sky. 52% probability by 2035. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/AI_Wealth_Gap/AI_Wealth_Gap.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/AI_Wealth_Gap/AI_Wealth_Gap.html In every era, wealth belongs to whoever owns the means of production. In the AI era, that means data and compute — already concentrated in a handful of companies. We give 82% probability that by 2032, AI ownership will define an economic divide larger than the industrial era's gap between landowners and labourers. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Offline_Advantage/The_Offline_Advantage.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/The_Offline_Advantage/The_Offline_Advantage.html People who deliberately reduce their screen time report significantly higher wellbeing, deeper relationships, and better sleep. Our model gives a 62% probability that intentional offline living becomes a recognised mainstream wellness strategy by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Oscars_AI_Category/Oscars_AI_Category.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Oscars_AI_Category/Oscars_AI_Category.html The Academy already ruled that AI use neither helps nor harms a film's chances. Awards seasons are convulsing over AI in The Brutalist and Emilia Pérez. We assign 52% probability that by 2032, the Oscars or an equivalent major award builds a formal structure for AI-assisted filmmaking. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Ozempic_Era/The_Ozempic_Era.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Ozempic_Era/The_Ozempic_Era.html GLP-1 drugs like semaglutide produce 15-22% body weight loss and unexpected cardiovascular benefits. At $1,000+/month, access remains the defining question of the obesity medicine revolution. 78% confidence. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Pharma_Reckoning/The_Pharma_Reckoning.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Pharma_Reckoning/The_Pharma_Reckoning.html We give a 42% probability that meaningful drug pricing reform will bring US pharmaceutical prices for major drugs to within 100% of European equivalents by… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Smart_Pill/Smart_Pill.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Smart_Pill/Smart_Pill.html Sensor pills already report from inside the body, and camera capsules are replacing some scopes. We assign 73% probability that by 2032, smart pills will be a routine medical tool. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Post_1945_Order_Collapse/Post_1945_Order_Collapse.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Post_1945_Order_Collapse/Post_1945_Order_Collapse.html The rules and institutions built after 1945 — the UN, the Bretton Woods system, the ban on changing borders by force — are eroding faster than anything is replacing them. We assign 79% probability that by 2035 the post-war order will be widely recognized as broken, with no successor system yet agreed. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Race_To_Cure_Alzheimers/The_Race_To_Cure_Alzheimers.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/The_Race_To_Cure_Alzheimers/The_Race_To_Cure_Alzheimers.html We give a 44% probability that a treatment genuinely halting — not just slowing — Alzheimer's progression will be approved by 2035. After more than 200 failed… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Religiously_Unaffiliated/Religiously_Unaffiliated.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Religiously_Unaffiliated/Religiously_Unaffiliated.html Across Europe, North America, and Oceania, people who claim no religion are the fastest-growing group and already the plurality in many countries. We assign 63% probability that by 2040, the religiously unaffiliated will be the largest single group across most of the West. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Rental_Nation/The_Rental_Nation.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/The_Rental_Nation/The_Rental_Nation.html For the first time in decades, renting is no longer a stepping stone — it's becoming the destination. Our model gives 78% probability that the US homeownership rate will fall below 60% by 2035, permanently reshaping American identity and wealth. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Dupe_Culture_Rise/Dupe_Culture_Rise.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Dupe_Culture_Rise/Dupe_Culture_Rise.html TikTok made 'dupe' a compliment. Young shoppers openly brag about finding a $12 version of a $200 product. We assign 76% probability that by 2030, the market for affordable alternatives to luxury goods will be a defining feature of consumer culture. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Buy_Nothing_Communities/Buy_Nothing_Communities.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Buy_Nothing_Communities/Buy_Nothing_Communities.html Buy Nothing groups, tool libraries, and neighborhood sharing apps are quietly exploding. We assign 57% probability that by 2033, sharing and gifting economies will account for a meaningful portion of everyday goods consumption in urban areas. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Side_Hustle_Economy/Side_Hustle_Economy.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Side_Hustle_Economy/Side_Hustle_Economy.html Rising costs, stagnant wages, and AI tools are reshaping how Americans earn money. We give 74% probability that by 2032, the majority of working Americans will rely on at least two income streams to maintain a middle-class lifestyle. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Taiwan_Strait_Trigger/Taiwan_Strait_Trigger.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Taiwan_Strait_Trigger/Taiwan_Strait_Trigger.html A 130–180 km waterway separates the world's largest navy by hull count from the island both militaries drill over more than any other contingency. We assign 78% probability that the Taiwan Strait is the most likely trigger for a US–China military clash. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/UN_Powerless/UN_Powerless.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/UN_Powerless/UN_Powerless.html Deadlocked by great-power vetoes and ignored by combatants, the UN Security Council has struggled to halt the wars of the 2020s, while peacekeeping retreats and decades of reform talks lead nowhere. We assign 76% probability that through the 2030s the Council will prove increasingly powerless in major crises. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Nuclear_Arms_Race/Nuclear_Arms_Race.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Nuclear_Arms_Race/Nuclear_Arms_Race.html New START expired on February 5, 2026 with no successor, leaving US and Russian strategic arsenals without negotiated limits for the first time in over five decades as China builds toward 1,000 warheads. We assign 84% probability that the 2030s open as a three-way nuclear competition with no binding arms-control agreements. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Farmable_Soil/Farmable_Soil.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Farmable_Soil/Farmable_Soil.html Erosion, salt, and exhaustion are stripping fertile topsoil faster than nature can rebuild it. We give 55% probability that by 2050 the world will lose roughly a third of its remaining productive soil. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Sahel_Collapse/Sahel_Collapse.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/geopolitics/geopolitics-articles/Sahel_Collapse/Sahel_Collapse.html A belt of West and Central Africa has seen a cascade of coups, expelled Western forces, turned to Russian security contractors, and become the epicenter of global terrorism deaths. We assign 73% probability of more coups and state collapses across the Sahel by 2032. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Population_Peak/Population_Peak.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Population_Peak/Population_Peak.html Birth rates are falling faster than demographers expected. We give 58% probability that global population will peak before 2060 rather than near 2085 — a turning point that changes everything. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Wealth_To_Women/Wealth_To_Women.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Wealth_To_Women/Wealth_To_Women.html A vast wave of wealth is moving into women's hands through inheritance, longevity, and earning power. We assign 68% probability that by 2035, women will control the majority of privately held financial assets across the developed world. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Theme_Parks_Beat_Cinemas/Theme_Parks_Beat_Cinemas.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Theme_Parks_Beat_Cinemas/Theme_Parks_Beat_Cinemas.html Disney's parks already out-earn its film studio by more than double, and Universal just spent ~$7 billion on Epic Universe while global box office sits below its 2019 peak. We assign 68% probability that by 2031, location-based entertainment out-earns the global box office by more than double. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Therapy_In_Your_Pocket/Therapy_In_Your_Pocket.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Therapy_In_Your_Pocket/Therapy_In_Your_Pocket.html 500 million mental health app downloads and CBT apps showing clinical-trial results comparable to in-person therapy. With 1 billion people lacking care access, the question is whether digital therapy democratises or trivialises treatment. 74% confidence. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Ocean_Gold/Ocean_Gold.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Ocean_Gold/Ocean_Gold.html The oceans hold an estimated 20 million tonnes of dissolved gold — but at one part per trillion, extracting it is a losing bet. The real prize is seawater uranium and lithium. We assign 44% probability that by 2035 a commercial venture extracts meaningful value from seawater minerals. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Global_Generation/Global_Generation.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/world/world-articles/Global_Generation/Global_Generation.html Today's children share the same apps, memes, and music from Lagos to Seoul. We give 59% probability that the generation coming of age this decade will be the first with a genuinely shared global culture. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Quantum_Clocks/Quantum_Clocks.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Quantum_Clocks/Quantum_Clocks.html Einstein's relativity says clocks tick faster the higher they sit. Atomic clocks now measure the difference across a single millimetre. We assign 71% probability that by 2035, portable optical clocks turn this into practical tools for mapping the Earth and navigating without GPS. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Traffic_Lights_Disappear/Traffic_Lights_Disappear.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Traffic_Lights_Disappear/Traffic_Lights_Disappear.html MIT research shows intersections without lights, coordinated car-to-car, could double capacity. Adaptive signals are already cutting travel times 25% in Pittsburgh. We assign 55% probability that by 2035, a major city district removes traffic signals entirely. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Vertical_Farms_Supermarket/Vertical_Farms_Supermarket.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Vertical_Farms_Supermarket/Vertical_Farms_Supermarket.html Glowing grow-towers already stand in Kroger and Marks & Spencer stores, and giants like Walmart have bet on vertical farms. We assign 71% probability that by 2031, store-grown greens will be a mainstream supermarket category. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Weather_Control_Wars/Weather_Control_Wars.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Weather_Control_Wars/Weather_Control_Wars.html More than 50 countries now modify their weather. China seeds an area larger than India, the UAE flies 300 missions a year, and neighbours are accusing each other of stealing rain. We assign 58% probability that by 2033, a formal weather modification dispute reaches a global body. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/What_Fills_The_Space_When_Religion_Leaves/What_Fills_The_Space_When_Religion_Leaves.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/What_Fills_The_Space_When_Religion_Leaves/What_Fills_The_Space_When_Religion_Leaves.html Church attendance has halved in a generation, but the human need for ritual, community, and meaning hasn't gone anywhere. Our model gives 74% probability that secular ritual communities become the dominant replacement by 2035. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/AI_Financial_Advisors/AI_Financial_Advisors.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/AI_Financial_Advisors/AI_Financial_Advisors.html For most of history, personalised financial advice was only for the wealthy. AI is about to change that. We give 71% probability that by 2031, AI financial advisors will manage more retail investment assets than human advisors — and be accessible to people who could never afford a financial planner before. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/AI_Makes_Products_Cheaper/AI_Makes_Products_Cheaper.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/AI_Makes_Products_Cheaper/AI_Makes_Products_Cheaper.html AI is cutting costs in manufacturing, logistics, and customer service. We give 61% probability that by 2031, AI-driven efficiency will reduce the price of at least 30% of common household goods — but those savings won't reach everyone equally. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Adult_Friendships_Survive_The_2030s/Will_Adult_Friendships_Survive_The_2030s.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Adult_Friendships_Survive_The_2030s/Will_Adult_Friendships_Survive_The_2030s.html A loneliness epidemic is quietly reshaping society. Adult friendships are harder to form and faster to fade than at any point in modern history. Our model gives a 55% probability that structural changes to how we live and work will reverse the trend by 2035 — but the window is narrow. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Alcohol_Consumption_Falling/Alcohol_Consumption_Falling.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Alcohol_Consumption_Falling/Alcohol_Consumption_Falling.html Gen Z drinks less than any generation since Prohibition. Our model gives 73% probability that alcohol consumption among 18–35 year olds in the US and Western Europe will continue declining through 2034, reshaping the hospitality industry and public health in equal measure. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Children_Play_Outside_Again/Will_Children_Play_Outside_Again.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Children_Play_Outside_Again/Will_Children_Play_Outside_Again.html Children today spend less time outdoors than any previous generation in recorded history. The average British child spends less time outside than a prisoner. But a parents' movement, mounting research, and a generation of children who have never known genuine outdoor freedom are creating the conditions for change. Our model gives a 62% probability of a measurable reversal by 2032. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Children_Stop_Learning_To_Drive/Will_Children_Stop_Learning_To_Drive.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Children_Stop_Learning_To_Drive/Will_Children_Stop_Learning_To_Drive.html Autonomous vehicles are already operating commercially. Our model gives 62% probability that by 2035, more than half of American teenagers will choose not to get a driver's license — a cultural shift that would have seemed impossible a decade ago. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Electric_Cars_Save_Money/Electric_Cars_Save_Money.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Electric_Cars_Save_Money/Electric_Cars_Save_Money.html The sticker price is still scary, but the math over 5 years is changing fast. We assign 69% probability that by 2030, the total cost of owning an electric vehicle will be meaningfully lower than a comparable gas car for most American drivers. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Marriage_Make_A_Comeback/Will_Marriage_Make_A_Comeback.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Marriage_Make_A_Comeback/Will_Marriage_Make_A_Comeback.html Marriage rates have fallen every decade since 1980. Our model gives 42% probability that marriage rates among 25–35 year olds will stabilize or rise by 2032 — driven not by tradition but by economic and social pressures reshaping how young people think about commitment. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Most_People_Cook_At_Home_Again_By_2030/Will_Most_People_Cook_At_Home_Again_By_2030.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Most_People_Cook_At_Home_Again_By_2030/Will_Most_People_Cook_At_Home_Again_By_2030.html Delivery apps boomed — but the data shows a quiet reversal already underway. Our model puts the probability of a home-cooking majority at 67% by 2030, driven by economics, health awareness, and a generation rediscovering the kitchen. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Multigenerational_Living_Become_The_New_Normal/Will_Multigenerational_Living_Become_The_New_Normal.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Multigenerational_Living_Become_The_New_Normal/Will_Multigenerational_Living_Become_The_New_Normal.html Three generations under one roof used to be the global norm. Then Western individualism dismantled it. Now economics, loneliness, and an ageing population are rebuilding it. Our model gives a 69% probability that multigenerational households become the majority structure in most high-income countries by 2033. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Neighbours_Know_Each_Other_Again/Will_Neighbours_Know_Each_Other_Again.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_Neighbours_Know_Each_Other_Again/Will_Neighbours_Know_Each_Other_Again.html In 1970, most people knew their neighbours' names. Today, a third of adults have never spoken to the person next door. A neighbourhood revival movement is forming — but structural forces are working against it. Our model gives a 52% probability that meaningful neighbour connection returns as a norm by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_People_Have_Less_Sex/Will_People_Have_Less_Sex.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_People_Have_Less_Sex/Will_People_Have_Less_Sex.html Americans are having less sex than at any point in recorded history — and the decline is accelerating among the young. Our model gives 68% probability that average sexual frequency will fall further by 2034, driven by loneliness, screens, and a generation rewriting the rules of intimacy. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_People_Trust_Institutions_Again/Will_People_Trust_Institutions_Again.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_People_Trust_Institutions_Again/Will_People_Trust_Institutions_Again.html Trust in government, media, courts, and banks is at historic lows in most democracies. Our model gives only 33% probability that institutional trust meaningfully recovers by 2034 — the structural forces destroying it are accelerating, not fading. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Work_Become_Optional/Will_Work_Become_Optional.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Work_Become_Optional/Will_Work_Become_Optional.html AI and automation are eliminating jobs faster than new ones appear. Our model gives only 34% probability that a meaningful share of the population — 10% or more — will achieve a lifestyle where paid work is genuinely optional by 2035. The math is harder than the headlines suggest. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Privacy_As_A_Luxury/Privacy_As_A_Luxury.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Privacy_As_A_Luxury/Privacy_As_A_Luxury.html Every app, device, and public camera is harvesting data on billions of people. Our model gives 79% probability that by 2032, meaningful digital privacy will be effectively available only to those who can pay for premium services, devices, and legal protections. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Robots_Take_Your_Job/Robots_Take_Your_Job.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Robots_Take_Your_Job/Robots_Take_Your_Job.html AI can now do cognitive work that once required years of training. We give 67% probability that by 2033, automation will eliminate more routine jobs than it creates — but the jobs it creates will pay significantly more. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Skilled_Trades_vs_College/Skilled_Trades_vs_College.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Skilled_Trades_vs_College/Skilled_Trades_vs_College.html Electricians are starting at $70,000 while philosophy graduates carry $50,000 in debt. Our model gives 65% probability that by 2032, enrollment in skilled trades programs will exceed four-year college enrollment growth for the first time in American history. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Student_Debt_Generation/Student_Debt_Generation.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Student_Debt_Generation/Student_Debt_Generation.html 45 million Americans carry $1.7 trillion in student loans. Our model gives 69% probability that student debt will continue to suppress homeownership, family formation, and retirement savings for the majority of borrowers through 2035 — despite reform efforts. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Tattoos_Still_Be_Taboo/Will_Tattoos_Still_Be_Taboo.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Will_Tattoos_Still_Be_Taboo/Will_Tattoos_Still_Be_Taboo.html One in three Americans under 40 has at least one tattoo, yet most workplaces still ask people to cover them up. Our model gives 71% probability that visible tattoos will be fully accepted across the majority of professional workplaces in the US by 2034. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Creativity_Over_Credentials/Creativity_Over_Credentials.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/economy/economy-articles/Creativity_Over_Credentials/Creativity_Over_Credentials.html AI can pass the bar exam and write financial models. What it cannot do is be genuinely creative or navigate ambiguity the way a curious person can. We give 58% probability that by 2032, creative skills will command higher salaries than degrees in 40% of knowledge-work categories. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Virtual_Travel_vs_Real_Travel/Virtual_Travel_vs_Real_Travel.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Virtual_Travel_vs_Real_Travel/Virtual_Travel_vs_Real_Travel.html VR headsets can already put you on a beach in Bali or the streets of Tokyo. Our model gives 44% probability that by 2034, at least 15% of people who currently travel internationally will substitute at least one annual trip with an immersive virtual alternative. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_We_Celebrate_Differently/Will_We_Celebrate_Differently.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_We_Celebrate_Differently/Will_We_Celebrate_Differently.html Birthdays, weddings, graduations — we celebrate them bigger and more expensively than ever. But surveys show we feel less meaningfully marked by them. A movement toward smaller, more intentional celebration is growing. Our model gives a 66% probability that by 2030, how we mark life's milestones will shift fundamentally toward depth over scale. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_We_Find_Love_Differently_By_2030/Will_We_Find_Love_Differently_By_2030.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/our-lives/our-lives-articles/Will_We_Find_Love_Differently_By_2030/Will_We_Find_Love_Differently_By_2030.html Dating apps have reshaped romance — but a quiet rebellion is brewing. More people are deleting the apps, meeting at clubs and classes, and choosing depth over volume. Our model puts the probability of a fundamental shift in how we find love at 72% by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Is_Western_Culture_Fading/Is_Western_Culture_Fading.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/reality/reality-articles/Is_Western_Culture_Fading/Is_Western_Culture_Fading.html For 200 years, Western culture expanded globally. Our model gives 48% probability that by 2035, non-Western cultural exports — Korean pop, Nigerian music, Indian cinema, Chinese tech — will for the first time collectively outpace Western cultural influence on a global audience. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Will_Average_Person_Spend_More_Time_With_AI_Companions_Than_Real_Friends_By_2030/Will_Average_Person_Spend_More_Time_With_AI_Companions_Than_Real_Friends_By_2030.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Will_Average_Person_Spend_More_Time_With_AI_Companions_Than_Real_Friends_By_2030/Will_Average_Person_Spend_More_Time_With_AI_Companions_Than_Real_Friends_By_2030.html AI companion app usage has surged 340% year-on-year while in-person social time has fallen 24%. Our model gives a 58% probability that AI companions surpass real friends by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Will_Average_Workweek_Drop_To_4_Days_By_2030/Will_Average_Workweek_Drop_To_4_Days_By_2030.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Will_Average_Workweek_Drop_To_4_Days_By_2030/Will_Average_Workweek_Drop_To_4_Days_By_2030.html Pilot programs across 18 countries show sustained productivity gains. Our model puts the probability of majority four-day week adoption at 44% by 2030 — closer than most employers admit. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Will_Middle_Class_Shrink_Below_40_Percent_By_2030/Will_Middle_Class_Shrink_Below_40_Percent_By_2030.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/Will_Middle_Class_Shrink_Below_40_Percent_By_2030/Will_Middle_Class_Shrink_Below_40_Percent_By_2030.html Wealth concentration data from 34 countries shows accelerating bifurcation. Our model puts the probability of middle class erosion below the 40% threshold at 38% — but the actions of individuals now will determine which side of that divide they land on. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Working_Until_75/Working_Until_75.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/health/health-articles/Working_Until_75/Working_Until_75.html Pension systems were designed when life expectancy was 67. Now governments are pushing retirement ages toward 70 and beyond. Is working longer a liberation or an act of slow exploitation? Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Yellowstone_Geothermal/Yellowstone_Geothermal.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Yellowstone_Geothermal/Yellowstone_Geothermal.html The odds of a Yellowstone eruption in any given year are about 1 in 730,000. The real story is the immense heat beneath the American West. We assign 62% probability that next-generation geothermal is among the fastest-growing US clean energy sources by 2035. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Microbiome_Medicine/Microbiome_Medicine.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Microbiome_Medicine/Microbiome_Medicine.html Your body holds roughly 38 trillion bacterial cells against about 30 trillion human ones — you are, by cell count, slightly more microbe than human. We assign 76% probability that by 2035, microbiome analysis and treatment is routine in mainstream medicine. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/You_May_Live_To_95_Are_You_Ready/You_May_Live_To_95_Are_You_Ready.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/people/people-articles/You_May_Live_To_95_Are_You_Ready/You_May_Live_To_95_Are_You_Ready.html Longevity science is accelerating faster than people are preparing for it. The average person born today in a developed nation is likely to live past 90. The… Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Personalized_Movies/Personalized_Movies.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Personalized_Movies/Personalized_Movies.html Face-swap, voice cloning, and text-to-video have each matured separately. Personalized kids' books already sell in the millions. We assign 47% probability that by 2035, films starring the viewer's own likeness become a commercial entertainment product. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/AI_Best_Friends/AI_Best_Friends.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/AI_Best_Friends/AI_Best_Friends.html Millions of children already talk to Alexa, Moxie, and Character.ai daily. Studies show kids grieve when AI companions are switched off. 81% probability this reshapes childhood by 2030. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/AI_Doctor/AI_Doctor.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/AI_Doctor/AI_Doctor.html AI already outperforms pathologists at cancer detection and catches heart conditions ECGs miss. With 2.7 billion people lacking doctors, AI medicine may be the most consequential equaliser in history. 79% probability. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Face_Credit_Card/Face_Credit_Card.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Face_Credit_Card/Face_Credit_Card.html China already runs hundreds of millions of face payments. Mastercard, Amazon, and JPMorgan are racing to bring pay-by-face to the West. We assign 84% probability your face becomes an accepted payment method at most major retailers by 2031. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Virtual_Pop_Stars/Virtual_Pop_Stars.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/sports-entertainment/sports-entertainment-articles/Virtual_Pop_Stars/Virtual_Pop_Stars.html Hatsune Miku sells out arenas, PLAVE tops Korean charts without a single human face, and an AI fake Drake track went viral worldwide. We assign 73% probability that by 2032, a fully virtual artist scores a global top-10 hit and a sold-out arena tour. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Living_Buildings/Living_Buildings.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Living_Buildings/Living_Buildings.html The next generation of smart buildings tracks your sleep, health, and daily patterns via radar — no cameras required. We assess a 68% probability that living buildings become standard in new construction by 2035, and the privacy trade-offs that come with them. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Automated_Kitchen/Automated_Kitchen.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/technology/technology-articles/Automated_Kitchen/Automated_Kitchen.html Robot kitchens already flip burgers in California and stir dinner in millions of European homes. We assign 61% probability that by 2032, fully automated meal preparation becomes an affordable mainstream appliance category — dinner that starts itself at 5:40. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Digital_Afterlife/Digital_Afterlife.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/ready-or-not/ready-or-not-articles/Digital_Afterlife/Digital_Afterlife.html Companies like HereAfter AI, StoryFile, and DeepBrain AI's re;memory are turning the dead into interactive digital personas. The legal, ethical, and psychological reckoning is only beginning. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Watch_Outpowers_Phone/Watch_Outpowers_Phone.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Watch_Outpowers_Phone/Watch_Outpowers_Phone.html The computer that landed humans on the Moon had 4KB of RAM. Your phone is millions of times more powerful. We assign 74% probability that by 2040, a wrist-worn device will match or exceed today's flagship smartphone — and the phone itself will begin to disappear. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000 https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Teeth_Regrow/Teeth_Regrow.html https://www.forecasttheworld.com/unbelievable/unbelievable-articles/Teeth_Regrow/Teeth_Regrow.html Many people carry dormant buds for a third set of teeth beyond their baby and adult teeth. A Japanese drug that wakes them has now entered human trials. We assign 64% probability that by 2040, tooth regeneration is an approved medical treatment. Sun, 05 Jul 2026 08:20:43 +0000